The tanks are getting low, and the cold hasn’t even started.

In one day this week, three separate warnings landed about fuel. None of them led the evening news.

Midwest gasoline hits a record low

Commercial gasoline stocks in the Midwest fell to 41 million barrels, the lowest on record, according to Energy Department data released October 28. They dropped another 1.2 million barrels in one week.

Transport Topics reports that a Cenovus refinery in Ohio is offline for regular maintenance but appears close to restarting. Chicago wholesale gasoline has also fallen from more than $4 a gallon to $3.09. That is real relief.

Still, stocks this low leave little spare fuel. Any new problem could mean sharp price jumps.

Connecticut dealers say it’s a supply problem

Chris Herb, who runs the Connecticut Energy Marketers Association, says heating oil there is above $6 a gallon, about $2.78 more than a year ago. He says this isn’t a Wall Street spike that fades fast.

“We actually do have a physical supply issue globally that is starting to pop up in the United States,” Herb said. He pointed to Persian Gulf refinery damage, Russian limits on diesel exports and uncertainty over oil moving through Hormuz.

His biggest worry is a hard cold snap that pushes power plants onto oil and diesel. He called himself cautiously optimistic. He also speaks for fuel dealers, so weigh it as one trade group’s view.

Diesel stays high into 2027

At a trucking summit in Florida, fuel executives said diesel could stay elevated through at least spring 2027. Chuck Ryan, CEO of a nationwide truck stop network, said he doesn’t see it coming down until spring, “and that’s if things start to work out on the war front.”

Ryan said the country had more than 300 refineries in 1980 and has about 128 today. “There’s no space in the pipelines. There’s no space in the terminals,” he said. An analyst from Dow Jones Energy said U.S. refineries are running above 95% of capacity.

Ryan named the Northeast as especially exposed. If it gets cold, he said, heating oil will take the pipeline space and diesel “won’t make the line.”

Russian diesel is on the way

Three tankers carrying 924,000 barrels of Russian diesel are headed for the East Coast, due November 7 through 11, according to tracking firm Kpler. That is about a third of what the U.S. transportation sector burns in a day.

It follows a deal between President Trump and Vladimir Putin to ease sanctions in exchange for Moscow releasing diesel. Ukraine’s president called the deal a “weak decision.”

What to do now

None of this is a reason to panic. It is a reason to get ahead of it.

• Ask your heating oil or propane dealer to fill your tank early, before the cold arrives.
• Ask about a budget plan that spreads payments over the winter. Herb says some dealers offer them.
• Get your furnace tuned up. Herb recommends it.
• If you need help paying, check your state’s energy assistance program now, not in January.
• Keep your vehicle tanks well topped off.
• Store any extra fuel in approved containers, outside the living space, away from flames and heat.

Steve Poplar is the publisher of The Poplar Report.